Today's comment is by Mike Burnick, Senior Editor, Global Markets Analyst and Editor of Commodity Trend Alert.

As I write this, one of the greatest icons of corporate America is in play. When all is said and done, global "value" investors including Warren Buffett will earn a tidy profit no matter what happens.

More than a year ago I wrote here in the A-Letter that even if you're attracted to fast-growing global markets, you should still keep an eye on opportunities here in the United States. Specifically, I told you to pay attention to U.S. blue-chip shares offering healthy international exposure (you can read the full article here: Going Global by Investing Local).

In that article, I pointed out that these days many big U.S. multi-national firms get most of their sales and earnings from overseas markets.

Case in point: Anheuser Busch (BUD). America's largest beer company has made several successful overseas investments in recent years, boosting its bottom-line.

BUD scored with a 50% stake in Mexico's Grupo Modelo, the maker of Corona - one of America's best-selling imported beers.

The value of BUD's stake in Modelo has quadrupled in value since the 1990s. BUD made another shrewd move by making a strategic investment in China's largest brewer: Tsingtao.

Combined beer volume from these two overseas investments has soared more than 60% in just the past two-years. These two brands now account for over 20% of BUD's total sales!

European Brewer Goes Global with a Buy-out Offer for BUD

Now, going global by investing local has been completely turned on its head. Another leading global beverage company is making an offer to buy-out America's biggest local brewer.

Belgium's InBev NV has made a US$65 a share all-cash takeover offer for BUD. In case you don't recognize the name, InBev NV brews Stella Artois, Bass Ale, and about 200 other global brands. The potential takeover values Anheuser Busch at a staggering US$46.3 billion. That's a 30% premium to the company's worth just over a year ago when I first wrote about BUD's undervalued shares.

This marks a dramatic reversal of fortune for America's leading multi-national companies. 

Big U.S. brand-name firms like BUD, as well as Coca-Cola (KO), Proctor & Gamble (PG), and Abbott Labs (ABT) have seen continued strong sales and profit growth from healthy overseas markets. This has happened even while many domestic-oriented companies in the S&P 500 suffer a sharp business slump.

We can thank the falling dollar for this massive redistribution of wealth. This global shift has made America's blue-chips look dirt cheap to other global companies - particularly those based in Europe.

Just 10 years or so ago, it would have been unthinkable that another beverage company could gobble-up a firm like Anheuser Busch, but not anymore.

Buffett Could Play a Pivotal Role

But the deal isn't done yet. Anheuser-Busch CEO, August A. Busch IV whose family started the Budweiser brand over 132 years ago, is understandably opposed to the buy-out offer.

However, according to Bloomberg, "The Busch family, which has run the brewer for five generations, doesn't have a big enough stake to block InBev in a shareholder vote."

In fact, management owns just 4.5% of BUD's shares. Institutional shareholders by contrast, are more likely to support the deal. InBev's US$65-a-share offer is 18% above BUD's 2002 high price. That's a nice profit in a difficult market.

Adding a touch of intrigue - there is also the possibility of a "white-knight" riding to BUD's rescue. Value investor Warren Buffett owns a 5% stake in Anheuser-Busch, which he accumulated in 2005.

That makes the Oracle of Omaha BUD's second-largest shareholder. August Busch has invited Buffett to sit down and personally discuss InBev's offer with him this week.

Of course, Buffett is known for buying brand-name companies on the cheap - sometimes buying them whole. He has also stated that Berkshire Hathaway, due to its size, must consider doing bigger deals - and BUD is certainly one whale of a deal.

Heads or Tails Buffett Wins - So Can You with Other Leading Blue-Chips

Buffett has also helped push stocks he owned into mergers in the past. When Procter & Gamble bought Gillette for US$57 billion in 2005, Buffett was a large shareholder and director of the razor-blade maker, helping seal the deal. Buffett also avoids bidding wars, and Bloomberg quoted unnamed analysts as saying "InBev may raise its bid as high as US$73 a share."

So is this Bud for Buffett? It's hard to say... Buffett has a long-stated aversion to "auctions" and InBev's current offer already values BUD at a healthy premium. He may well support InBev's offer in the end, rather than over-paying for BUD himself. But either way - Buffett wins!

One thing I'm sure of is that you can bet on more high-profile buy-outs of brand name American firms. Fast growing cash-rich companies in Asia, the Middle East, and even Europe have plenty of cash to invest. These companies still enjoy a favorable currency exchange rate environment.

Several blue-chip American icons come to mind including: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Walt Disney (DIS), and Kraft Foods (KFT) just to name a few. Buffett has also been buying KFT shares recently (and my colleague Eric Roseman also likes the stock).

These companies are global in reach, and attractively valued in price - especially to cash-rich foreign buyers using stronger currencies as buy-out script.

MIKE BURNICK, Senior Editor & Global Markets Analyst

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A Case of Offshore Nerves: Why Senator Obama Needs a Crash Course in Modern Tax Havens

The leaders of the world's offshore financial centers (a.k.a tax havens) seem to be slowly realizing what will happen if Senator Barack Obama (D-ILL) is elected as president of the United States. They're seeing the Senator could do serious economic and political harm to their jurisdictions and their peoples.

Example: This week the Prime Minister of Barbados, David Thompson, and other Caribbean Community (CARICOM) leaders plan to use a pending Caribbean summit meeting in New York to send a clear message of protest to Senator Obama.

Barbados, The Bahamas, the Cayman Islands, Antigua, Grenada and others in the region have complained about Obama's radical ideas because they fear he will undermine their offshore financial sectors that annually contribute hundreds of millions of dollars to their treasuries. The offshore sector also provides employment for thousands of banking and legal professionals.

This tax haven concern is not limited to the Caribbean area.

Across the Atlantic Ocean, Isle of Man Treasury Minister, Allan Bell, this week warned the Manx Chamber of Commerce that offshore financial centers would face renewed pressures if Obama became president.

Prime Minister of St Kitts-Nevis said: "Blanket statements and blanket laws passed in the United States Congress can have serious, very serious effects on the continued growth and development of Caribbean economies."

"He needs to be told, he needs to be educated. His advisers need to be engaged in a dialogue so they can appreciate what our interest is and how his policies and programs are going to affect us in the Caribbean," Dr. Douglas added.

What Obama also needs to be told is that in recent years, all of these jurisdictions have cleaned up their acts. They've passed strong anti-money laundering laws. Today, these jurisdictions now have better financial law enforcement than do the world's two leading tax havens/dirty money centers - the United States and the United Kingdom.

To hear the full details on Obama's sordid legislation, please see my blog right now.

BOB BAUMAN, Legal Counsel

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Why Actions Speak Louder Than Words - Especially When Bernanke Is Talking Part II

Everyone in the markets is waiting to see if Bernanke actually follows through with all his "strong dollar" words. But honestly, I don't buy a word of what he's been selling lately.

Here's why: Commodity inflation is now center stage everywhere. Dollar-priced raw materials continue to surge in value and create all sorts of headaches for consumers, businesses and governments.

Bernanke must be scratching his head, because this is the first time since the WWII era that the United States is also witnessing an explosion in commodity prices when the world's largest economy is stumbling. Blame it on the emerging markets, namely China, which now consumes virtually every conceivable raw material.

The Federal Fund futures now show a high likelihood the Fed will start raising interest rates later this fall. Will the Fed start hiking rates while labor, real estate, and bank credit markets are still contracting? I'd say the real odds are 10-1 against a rate hike now.

The dollar remains cheap and heavily oversold compared to every currency in the world, except maybe the Zimbabwean dollar. But cheap can get cheaper...

The dollar is still tied to housing. Until the real estate market finds a bottom, the dollar will remain under pressure. I don't see the dollar tumbling from these levels, but I also can't see the currency mustering a significant rally in the absence of higher interest rates.

Since its creation in 1913, the Fed has never hiked lending rates while the unemployment rate is rising. The Fed won't hike now. Also, 2008 is an election year - another reason why the Fed won't tighten.

So why do they keep talking about a "strong dollar?" It's still very important for U.S. policymakers to look like they're concerned about the dollar's decline. The fact that the Fed announced they're "concerned" about the dollar just shows how the government wants to stop speculators from betting against the currency. And they're also hoping to arrest the huge gains in oil and other commodities in the process.

ERIC ROSEMAN, Investment Director

P.S. Next week will be the ultimate test of whether this whole "get tough on inflation" Fed talk is actually going anywhere. For my money, I'm betting the Fed pulls the covers over their heads and keeps rates right where they are. In other words, the Fed will continue to sit-tight in spite of rising inflation, which should provide a bullish boost to commodities. Read my FREE special report to get the full details on the commodities that are still 94% below all-time highs of 33 years ago! Click here.

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