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Tuesday, August 5, 2008 - Vol. 10, No. 185

Today's comment is by David Newman, Market Analyst and editor of the new "Accelerated Income" service for The Sovereign Society.

The big debate on "The Street," (besides whether we're really in a bear market or not) is will the next move be bullish or bearish?

And my answer is "Yes, the next move will be bullish and bearish." (I know what you're thinking: "Great, David...that's a lot of help!")

Before you dismiss my ideas, let me explain. If you look at the major indices over the last few days, you'll notice the markets rise and fall like the tide, even during this bear market. But I'll get to that in just a minute. First let me give you a visual.

I'm currently winging my way from my home in Florida to Scottsdale and Sedona, Arizona. I'm going on a much-needed vacation with my family to The Grand Canyon. We're off to a rocky start so far - our flight was delayed and we already lost two days off our trip.

We were delayed leaving West Palm Beach, which means we're going to miss our connection in Atlanta. "Weather delays" they tell us. By the way, "they" are AirTran (and that's a company I plan on shorting as soon as possible, but that's another story for a future article) and AirTran couldn't get us out of Atlanta until late yesterday.

I'll be flying as this story runs later today, so my apologies - I'm working with the most recent data I have available - starting with last week.

Up, Down, Sideways - Does It Really Matter?

Last week, we had two up days and three down days. The Dow was down 239 points on Monday, up 266 points on Tuesday, up 186 on Wednesday, down 204 on Thursday and down 42 on Friday.

Then yesterday, as I sat in the airport, the Dow dropped 42 points. Today, my editor tells me the Dow is already up 110 points.

Not that it matters. Up, down, up down - bullish or bearish - honestly, I couldn't care less. I've discovered a way to make money either way.

Last week, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 44.37 points, or 0.4%, to close at 11,326.32. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index gained 2.55 points, or 0.2%, to close at 1,260.31 The Nasdaq composite index rose 0.43 point, or 0.02%, to close at 2,310.96.

We sit here as investors and we try to pick tops and bottoms in the markets. Yes, I know everybody tells you - "you can't time the markets." Yet we all want to, don't we?

We look at charts...we analyze trends...we listen closely to the talking-heads on CNBC to see if they have the answers. We dig deep inside our brains to discover the trend behind the trend...we look to see if anything is hiding back there that could help us predict the future.

In markets like these you look for new ideas, creative ways to win. And then suddenly...

Voilà - eureka - there it is! And it's been right there in front of you the whole time.

Two Choices: Sit and Wait, or Act and Profit

As I said in Thursday's A-Letter, you can run and hide and go to all cash.

You can accept the long slow drain of your net worth as inflation and the dollar gang up on you. Sit tight, cross your fingers...feel vindicated on a bullish day and defeated on the bearish ones.

Or you can take advantage of extraordinary opportunities for high income now, whether the market moves up 250 points or down 250 points.

There are certain structured vehicles that will pay far more than even the best dividend paying stocks. In fact, you can collect 20% on one of the best solar companies with 40% down side "insurance." Or you can secure a 14% "guarantee cash dividend" on a huge U.S. blue-chip like Target Corp - one of the few retailers that has the best position to grab the middle of the market and is gearing up for the back-to-school sales.

You don't get any of the upside. But we're talking about investing in a market that can't seem to find its way... On many of these, the stock has to fall 20% or even 40% before you risk loss. But you collect 10%, 15%, or 20% in checks all the while, as the market tries to figure itself out.

DAVID NEWMAN, Market Analyst

EDITOR'S NOTE: Learn how you can secure your own "guaranteed cash dividends" with David's new service Accelerated Income. Today is the LAST DAY you can sign up for his service absolutely FREE. Get the details here.


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Offshore:

Why Panama Could Be Your Escape
from the U.S. Economy

Geographically speaking, Panama is a rather odd country. It stretches farther East and West than North and South, and it connects South and Central America. A new study from the Florida Museum of Natural History suggests how the Isthmus of Panama was likely formed.

Previously scientists believed Panama was either once a string of islands or was created from rising and subsiding ocean levels. The study negates all these theories.

Map of Panama Image

The study used geologic, chemical, and biologic methods to date rocks and fossils found in the sides of the Gaillard Cut of the Panama Canal. They concluded the Central American peninsula collided slowly with the South American continent through tectonic plate movement over millions of years, and eventually formed Panama.

According to their findings, the Isthmus of Panama was first a peninsula of southern Central America before the underlying tectonic plates merged it with South America four million years ago.

That's interesting news, but I doubt it will have much impact on the three million people who live in this famous country the size of South Carolina. This small country already happens to be the crossroads of world shipping and the site of one of history's major technological miracles - the American built, Panama Canal.

Since last Wednesday I've been just a stone's throw from that Panama Canal at a conference for our sister Agora group, International Living. I was last here in May when The Sovereign Society held its annual Total Wealth Symposium, and it's always good to see old friends and check out the domestic situation here.

As usual, I'm checking out the lay of the land. And I have good news: If you're looking to invest or retire here, it's very encouraging...

If you're looking to escape the stumbling American economy, here's some more good news for you: The new economic report predicts healthy GDP growth in 2008 with growth at between 7% and 8%. Some analysts think the dynamic economy in Panama, with many important private and public investment projects, will offset the negative impacts from the U.S. economy.

There are more major developments happening in this small economy and you can read the full report on my blog right now.

BOB BAUMAN, Legal Counsel

P.S. Learn all about Panama and its potential for investments and as a retirement home for foreigners in my newly updated book, Panama Money Secrets.


Wealth:

The Biggest Interest Rate Barometer Hits a 52-Week Low

The Dow Jones Utility Average (DJUA) is widely regarded as one of the most sensitive interest rate barometers in the market. And this summer, the DJUA continues to break down. On Friday, the index hit a fresh 52-week low and now sits 15% below its best level since August 2007.

The utilities index enjoyed a big advance off the 2002 bear market low - the DJUA is powered mostly by electric and gas companies so it's profited from the run-up in utilities over the last five years. Electricity rates have surged over the last several years and boosted revenues for once staid utilities. But this bull market is looking increasingly frail and now just 5% from bear market territory.

The DJUA index currently trades at 15 times earnings and yields 3.9% annually. Both figures aren't exactly attractive, especially compared to the bombed-out financials.

$UTIL Chart

The decline of the DJUA index might have more to do with looming interest rate hikes than rising electricity bills for consumers.

Historically, this index has been highly sensitive to changes in monetary policy. In fact, long before the Fed starts hiking rates, the DJUA typically begins a long correction process in anticipation of higher interest rates. But the technical picture for this index now looks pretty bearish, as you can see on the chart above.

Looks like the market expects higher rates...but will they get them? Doubtful.

ERIC ROSEMAN, Investment Director


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