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Ask Yourself: How Much Can I Screw Up
Today?
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The            Sovereign Society Offshore A-Letter
 

Thursday, January 11, 2007
Vol. 9 No. 10
In Today's Letter:
Comment: How Badly Can I Screw Up Today?
Offshore: Keeping New Year's Resolution #6
Wealth: The Absolute Worst Investments for 2007
Privacy: How to Protect Your Online Accounts from Hackers
Ask Yourself:
How Much Can I Screw Up Today?

Today's comment is by Jack Crooks, our Currency Director and editor of The Money Trader and Crooks on Currencies.

Dear A-Letter Reader,

I read a book on trading many years ago that said before every trading day begins, you must ask yourself: How badly can I screw up my account today? This sounded a bit blunt to me. And it seemed like an odd way to start your morning.

But I've found this simple approach is a great way to focus on the key element that will determines long-term success in any asset market, whether that be stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, and even real estate. This key element is risk.

When you think of risk, you probably think of things such as:

o Emerging market crises brewing
o Potential time-bomb of derivatives
o The stock market being overvalued
o U.S.-China trade war
o On and on into infinitum... 

No doubt these are very important market risks. And these types of risks do generate fear and losses in the markets. But there's only so much you can do to hedge against these risks. It's much easier to control your individual account risk. Or in other words: how much you can afford to screw up your portfolio.  

It's obvious some of us can handle more investment risk than others. We can thank J.P. Morgan for the best single piece of advice about how to take on risk. J.P. Morgan had a friend who was worried about his stock holdings, so Morgan told him, "Sell down to your sleeping point." What he meant was: if you're lying awake at night, worrying about your investments, then you're carrying too much risk.

I have found the simple "screw up your account" mantra very useful for controlling my amount of risk. In fact, I have this phrase printed across the top of my "trade sheets." Those are the papers I use to record each of my trades, risk levels, and reasons for each trade.

This helps me because it forces me to define the level of risk BEFORE entering an investment position. It forces me to consider that factor.

For many investors, it's easier to keep a degree of objectivity BEFORE entering a particular trade. After you place your trade, your objectivity can quickly evaporate. And it's replaced with something very dangerous-hope. 

Here's an example of what I do when defining my risk in a currency trade before I place my trades...

First, I look for key technical indicators in the market. I look for basic trend lines that tell me whether the dynamics of supply and demand have changed in the market. This tells me the price level which will prove my prospective trade wrong. At that price level, I will have to exit the market with a loss, no matter what-end of story. So before I even place the trade, I know what price to sell at to cut my losses, just in case the markets don't go my way.

And of course, I can always reenter the trade if it makes sense later. Plus, once I have exited, I again regain that objectivity to better evaluate this particular trade.

There is an old market adage: Bull markets climb a wall of worry, while bear markets flow down a river of hope. It's natural to hope our losses will subside and be afraid our profits will go away. That's why we are tricked by the markets.

When investing, you should use both fear and hope to your advantage. Defining risk beforehand helps you to know when to do that and drop a losing a trade. If you fear severe losses, then you will exit a trade to cut your losses before it's too late. Hope, on the other hand, can help you hold on to a winning trade long enough to turn a substantial profit.

JACK CROOKS, Currency Director
On behalf of The Sovereign Society

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Offshore

Keeping New Year's Resolution #6:
Determine if a Trust Could Solve Your Asset Protection Needs

For the past five days now, I've used this space to give you tips on how to keep The Sovereign Society's top 10 New Year's resolutions. Over the past week, you've heard about how to...

1. Open an offshore bank account
2. Expect and secure better returns offshore
3. Diversify your assets into different currencies
4. Minimize your tax bills by living or investing abroad
5. Purchase hard metals as a hedge against the falling dollar

You've reached the halfway mark- Congratulations! Let's keep up the momentum.

Our 6th New Years resolution is about determining if a trust would be the right asset protection solution for you.

So what's the point of an offshore asset protection trust?

For starters, it protects your assets better than any domestic trust ever can simply because it is located outside your home country. Distance makes the trust grow stronger. And that includes protection from creditors. In many cases, foreign courts in "asset havens" won't recognize U.S. court orders. A foreign judgment creditor seeking your assets must argue their claim in the local asset haven's courts after hiring local lawyers.

Other benefits include...

1. Minimal Requirements: Offshore trusts don't have to be complicated.
2. Confidentiality: These secure stronger financial privacy.
3. Estate Planning: Minimize estate taxes for your spouse.
4. Investment Potential: An offshore asset protection trust can be your platform for more diversified investments.

To learn more, scan The Sovereign Society website at Home for some information in past A-Letters and Sovereign Individual articles.

If you are interested in a trust, you should check with a tax attorney in your home country to find out if a trust makes sense for you. Make sure to ask about any potential tax liabilities and all reporting requirements to your home country.

And if you're ready to pursue your own asset protection trust, our trust report can help you find the right trust professionals, jurisdictions, and other information to make it happen. Click here to learn more.

ERIKA NOLAN, Executive Director

Wealth/Investments

 The Absolute Worst Investments for 2007

Each year at this time I compile a list of the Best & Worst global investments for the next 12 months.

I base my list of "low value" investments on absolute and relative values, current press coverage, and historical market returns. Typically, these securities have already enjoyed bull market advances. In many cases, these low value investments exhibit the characteristics of a "bubble," or a speculative mania. Also, when the press is publishing stories on a nonstop basis about a certain market, you know the cliff isn't far away.

For 2007, the worst places to invest are:

India: This has got to be the biggest bubble market of them all. It's not a resource market like Russia. Instead India is highly dependent on services, textile, and auto manufacturing. India has been red-hot since 2003 and everyone is launching an India mutual fund lately, including the latest India ETF in the United States. I'm wagering stocks in India will decline at least 20% in 2007, probably more.

REITs: Here's another Mother of Bubbles. U.S. Real Estate Investment Trusts have surged more than 25% per annum since 2000. That's a great return, but now, REIT yields are less than T-bonds. I just can't see any value in this sector. Multiples are mostly nosebleed and investors continue to lunge at these securities despite a poor 4% average yield today. In 2007, REITs should fall 10%.

Emerging Market Bonds: The spread between risk-free U.S. T-bonds and emerging market debt is now the lowest in history. Yield spreads are now at just 177 basis points over T-bonds. Five years ago, that spread was over 5%. Plus, you're not paid to own emerging market bonds today. Emerging market bonds have been superb investments since 1992, but we're long overdue for a default. A devaluation or some other crisis is due to hit this heavily overbought asset class. In 2007, I'm looking at a 5-10% decline for emerging market bonds.

Base Metals: After a massive five year rally, things like copper, nickel, and lead are probably going to crash this year. The base metals have gained about 50% per annum since 2004, the best performing constituent of the commodities complex. But with global growth slowing, new mine production coming later in 2007 and 2008, and the intense speculation in this sector, I'm betting we'll suffer a major blow-out for base metals this year. As a group, the base metals will tank 25% in 2007. 

Check back tomorrow to find out my best investments for 2007.

ERIC ROSEMAN, Investment Director

Privacy&Rights

 Hackers Target Online Accounts, Savings Vanish

Computer hackers, increasingly tied to organized crime rings, have begun targeting online investment accounts. And if they target your account, your broker may not be required to reimburse you for your losses.

Just ask Joe Lopez. He regularly uses online services from Bank of America to send and receive money internationally to and from his business account. But in April 2004, he discovered an unauthorized wire transfer for US$90,348 sent to a bank in Latvia. Lopez notified police, who with the aid of the U.S. Secret Service performed a forensic examination of his PC. There, they discovered a "Trojan Horse" program called Coreflood that permits an outsider to take over a PC.

Bank of America disavowed responsibility, prompting Lopez to sue the bank to get his money back. The case is still pending. "We fully investigated his claims and determined that all of our internal protocols and security measures were in place," says Shirley Norton, a Bank of America spokeswoman.

Even though the theft from Lopez' account took place more than three years ago, many online banks and brokerages still have a "blame the customer" mentality. While consumers are protected by federal laws that limit their fraud losses in most cases to US$50, business customers like Lopez have no such protection. In addition, online brokerage customers, both consumer and business, have no legal protections whatsoever beyond that provided by the broker itself. In some cases, that protection doesn't amount to much at all.

That was the situation faced by Dave DeSmidt, a customer of J.P. Morgan & Co., who lost 25 years of retirement savings on October 23, 2006. One moment, DeSmidt had $179,000 in his 401(k) retirement account. The next, he had nothing.

Morgan concluded that the break-in wasn't their fault and dismissed any responsibility to reimburse DeSmidt for his loss. The conclusion of an investigative report sent to DeSmidt was: "Investigation Status: Closed." However, DeSmidt continued to pressure J.P. Morgan for answers and the investigation was reopened. And just last month, J.P. Morgan told him the stolen funds had been recovered and would be credited to his account.

How can you protect yourself from this kind of fraud? Short of abandoning the convenience of online banking or brokerage accounts, you should first review the service contract with your online bank or brokerage service to see what their policy is concerning fraudulent access to your account. Second, make certain that you're using up-to-date firewall and anti-virus software. (Zone Labs has some excellent offerings in this area. http://www.zonelabs.com ) Third, change passwords frequently. You should do this at least once a month. Finally, log on to your account regularly, even if you're not making a transaction, to make certain that no funds are missing.

I suspect that Congress will eventually get around to enacting legislation that will provide more robust legal protections for consumers-and perhaps businesses as well-against online fraud. But until it does, it's up to you to protect yourself.

MARK NESTMANN, Privacy Expert &
President of The Nestmann Group
www.nestmann.com

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