Dear A-Letter Reader: 

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The name does not exactly roll off the tongue, but in 2006 he may become the most dangerous man in the world. 

Since last December, the former mayor of Tehran and new president of Iran said that Israel should be "wiped off the face of the earth" and that the Holocaust, during which 50% of the world's Jews were murdered, was a "myth". Coming from anyone else these ugly words may be nothing more than the ravings of yet another anti-Semitic crackpot. However, unfortunately for all of us, Iran is no banana republic. The country is the second largest producer in OPEC, sitting on 10% of the world's proven reserves of oil and fully 25% of the world's reserves of natural gas. As such, Mr. Ahmadinejad's further radicalization of this key geographic region may lead to a geo-political crisis that would make the Iraq war seem like a mere sideshow. 

To make matters worse, this former participant of the Iranian hostage crisis of 1979 is hell bent on developing nuclear weapons capability for his country. 

According to Israeli Mossad chief Meir Dagan, Iran is now only six months away from achieving technological independence in its quest to create a nuclear bomb. Dagan further warns that Iran would not be content with just one nuclear weapon. Iran has already produced 40 tones of UF6, a compound used in the uranium enrichment process that produces fuel for nuclear reactors and nuclear weapons. That amount of UF6 could produce 40 kilograms of fissile material. 

The situation has become so serious that Russian President Vladmir Putin, the rock hard former KGB colonel, himself no stranger to dictatorial tactics, has decided to intervene. The Russians, have made a very clever diplomatic offer to Iran that would enrich the uranium for Iranians in Russia. This process would ensure that the enrichment would only reach non-weapons grade levels and could be used solely for peaceful purposes in nuclear reactors. The plan has support of both the EU and the US and would go a long way to assuage the rising fears of world leaders. Until just recently Iran has ignored the proposal. However, on December 28th Javad Vaeedi, deputy head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council stated that the Russian offer "will be reviewed seriously and enthusiastically." Whether this is simply a stalling tactic or a true desire to work out a diplomatic solution is unclear. 

However one thing is certain. Should the situation not resolve itself, neither the Israelis nor the Americans will sit idly by as Iran manufactures weapons of mass destruction. Unlike Iraq, this time the crisis is real.  Nuclear weapons in the hands of a fanatical regime that couldn't care less about Soviet-American MAD (mutually assured destruction) -  the concept that kept two vicious but rational foes at bay for the past 60 years of Cold War - is precisely what makes the situation so volatile. 

Is Mr. Ahmadinejad playing? Is he simply acting like all the other demagogues of history from Lenin to Stalin to Hitler, by creating an external enemy upon which his frustrated countrymen can vent their rage, instead of confronting the shortcomings of their own society? Perhaps. Iran, with more than 50% of its population under 25, is facing a resource problem as more and more of its oil supplies are used for internal energy needs, rather than for generation of much needed export revenue. In fact, to this day, Iran has never been able to match output levels of pre-revolutionary days, producing only 4.1 million barrels per day today versus over 6 million bbl/day in the 1970's. 

Certainly Mr. Ahmadinejad is no fool. A son of an ironworker, he scored 130th in the nationwide university entrance exams in 1975 ultimately receiving a doctorate in engineering and traffic transportation planning. Yet even a casual student of history will know that playing the game of diplomatic aggression can quickly get out of hand. While the world's greatest powers, from US to China to EU to Japan to Russia, may constantly jockey for position on the world stage, they all have a vested interest in preserving peace and prosperity as their primary goal these days is to grow their respective GDPs through commerce, not military conquest. 

No such assumption can be made with respect to Iran, which makes President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the man to watch in 2006.