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THE SOVEREIGN SOCIETY OFFSHORE A-LETTER
Your Link to Freedom, Privacy & Prosperity in the Offshore World
Monday, September 13, 2004 - Vol. 6 No. 174
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In This Issue:
* COMMENT: Bargain Hunting in Beirut.
* OFFSHORE: Hong Kong Democrats Win; Possible Beijing Backlash; U.S. Support Needed. Hurricanes Drive Caribbean Firms to Guernsey. U.S. Expat Retirees Heading for Central American.
* WEALTH: Rich Koreans Go Offshore. Japan Recovery in 5th Quarter.
* PRIVACY & RIGHTS: New US Rules for Foreigner Visitors.
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Guest comment is by Sven Lorenz, a London-based German native who has written for over 30 publications in 7 nations. He specializes in finding undervalued corporate shares in global markets.
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COMMENT: Bargain Hunting in Beirut
Dear A-Letter Reader:
Three years ago, I made one of the costliest investment mistakes of my life, not because I made a bad investment, but because I didn't make one that I should have made.
My girlfriend at that time was British, but of Croatian heritage. I had spent most of my childhood holidays there, so both of us knew the country well; and we planned to buy property there.
Not that Croatian property was a hot investment at the time - quite the opposite. Mentioning 'Croatia' three yeas ago conjured up images of war torn towns and refugee camps. Our friends warned us to have prospective properties swept for land mines. They had no clue that most of Croatia wasn't touched by the then recent war, particularly the coastal regions we were investigating.
A hectic work schedule and a subsequent separation ended the plan. It was only a few months ago that I finally travelled to Croatia to look into property. The country is still cheap when compared to other Mediterranean locations. But three years ago, I could have purchased the property I am now negotiating over for less than half of its current value. Waiting three years cost me dearly, now that Croatia has reappeared on investors' maps.
But this episode did teach me an important lesson about the truth of the old adage from the legendary banker, Mayer Amschel Rothschild. Countries in trouble, Rothschild was reputed to have said, are often the best investment opportunities. The downside is that your friends won't congratulate you on what a wise investment you made. The opposite is true; just as friends warned me not to step onto land mines while surveying my property.
But these fears are usually overblown. The world generally steers a course somewhere in between the best case and the worst case. Buy for worst case prices and you'll more often than not discover later that you made a brilliant investment move.
So, what's the next overlooked opportunity, a la Croatia. Would you believe -- Beirut? Yes, Beirut, Lebanon. Beirut used to be the Monte Carlo of the East Mediterranean and it's just now reappearing as a fashionable destination for the rich and famous. It's also being completely rebuilt after being devastated by civil war. (See LINK below).
Beirut, along with Middle East property in general, is depressed because of the daily news coverage on the region's problems. Now might just be the time to get in on the cheap. Indeed, I've found a little-known share traded on a major Western stock exchange with which you could buy Beirut property for less even than its current market value. This company is currently valued at 70% of 1993 property prices. But since then, prices have more than doubled. In other words, this share lets you buy the best of the Beirut property market at less than a third of its current market value. With Beirut coming back into its rightful prominence and the wounds of the civil war healing, prices should continue to rise.
Of course, there are no guarantees this share will increase in value. But the odds are very good that it will. And it's not the first time I've identified such undervalued, out-of-favor shares. For instance, in November 2002, I advised purchasing shares of Petrel Resources, an Iraqi oil venture listed on London's Alternative Investment Market. At the time, only months before the US invasion, the share was valued so low that one could have hardly lost anything - although hardly anyone dared touch it because it did business in Iraq. But investors who were brave enough to buy it then enjoyed a run up of 2,200%.
Will the Beirut share I've discovered go up 2,200%? Perhaps not - but I wouldn't be surprised to go up by 500% or even 1,000% in the next few years, as Beirut becomes trendy again, particularly with wealthy Arabs and Europeans.
Sven Lorenz
London, England
E-mail: s.lorenz@innomega.de
NOTE: You too can spot just emerging market trends, as in this Beirut story, even before they affect prices. "Profit Hunter," a new investment service by Sven Lorenz can help. Sven has a new report on a secret energy sector US investors aren't being told about by their brokers - but Sven thinks it could yield you a profit of up to 1,030%. This is just now starting to leak in the US media. In an upcoming issue of "Profit Hunter" he'll name the shares targeting the Beirut property market described above. For more information, click here:
LINK: http://www.agora-inc.com/reports/120SGPAA/W120E907
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COMMENT LINKS:
* Since 9/11, Rich Arabs Again Frolic in Lebanon. LINK:
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/09/international/middleeast/09lebanon.html
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* OFFSHORE *
HONG KONG DEMOCRATS INCREASE SEATS
Democracy parties gain in Sunday poll.
LINK: http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0913/p07s02-woap.html
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=worldNews&storyID=6212605
* Record turnout in Hong Kong vote.
LINK: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/3648568.stm
* Beware Beijing backlash after elections. LINK:
http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3190604
* Hong Kong needs US support.
LINK: http://www.heritage.org/Press/Commentary/ed090904e.cfm
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CARIBBEAN FIRMS USE GUERNSEY AS HURRICANE REFUGE
ST. PETER PORT: Offshore firms emergency shift to Channel Isle. LINK:
http://www.thisisguernsey.com/code/shownewsarticle.pl?ArticleID=011896
* NASSAU: BAHAMAS insists tourism unaffected by hurricane damage.
LINK: http://www.tax-news.com/asp/story/story.asp?storyname=17242
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U.S. RETIREES HEADING FOR CENTRAL AMERICA
More US retired persons opt for sun, sand and lower prices.
LINK: http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/world/2789406
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LINK: http://www.agora-inc.com/reports/120SMTOM/W120E7MS
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* WEALTH *
RICH KOREANS SEEK OFFSHORE REAL ESTATE
SEOUL: Wealthy Koreans no longer feel welcome at home.
LINK: http://msnbc.msn.com/id/5973591/site/newsweek/
* In Japan, measuring a recovery's strength. LINK:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A12917-2004Sep10.html
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* PRIVACY & RIGHTS *
FOREIGNERS BEWARE WHEN VISITING U.S.A.
US notifies foreigners of tougher visa rules.
LINK: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/11/politics/11travel.html
* Biometric electronic passports are an unreadable mess. LINK:
http://www.reed-electronics.com/electronicnews/article/CA452028
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THE SOVEREIGN SOCIETY OFFSHORE A-LETTER.
* Bob Bauman, Editor * Daniel Aponte, Jr. Editorial Asst.
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