Today's Comment is by Eric Roseman, Investment Director of The Sovereign Society and editor of Commodity Trend Alert and Global Mutual Fund Investor.
Dear A-Letter Reader:
Avoid US real estate. That's the word from one of the world's premier real estate moguls: Tom Barrack, Chairman and CEO of Colony Capital. Barrack has earned a fortune in real estate during his career, buying distressed properties at bargain prices and selling them after prices soar. Barrack believes the US offers poor values in most regions today. Miami and San Diego are the most expensive and therefore ripe for big declines. The 58-year-old real estate titan is now selling his US holdings because he's afraid a real estate bust is coming as construction and labor costs continue to soar.
One of the greatest real estate bargains left on this side of the hemisphere is still Panama City. Whereas amateurs continue to speculate in red-hot "bubble" markets across the American coastline, Panama City is truly one of the greatest real estate investment deals of the decade.
As a regular visitor to Panama since 2000, I can tell you that the skyline is reminiscent of Miami at night - with all the glitter and hype of an international city. Buildings continue to shoot up across the city, including downtown Panama City, Latin America's regional hub for commercial banking. Modern condominiums are lavishly finished with the finest Italian marble and sell for just a fraction compared to the ballooning levels of real estate prices in the US, Canada and the European Mediterranean sun-belt.
Panamanian real estate was hit hard early this decade following America's departure on December 31, 1999, when the US control of the Panama Canal reverted to the Panamanian government. The resultant transfer led to a real estate glut following the withdrawal of US forces. Panama's economy barely grew from 2000 to 2003, while the rest of Central America and most of Latin America saw strong gross domestic product (GDP) growth on the heels of booming raw materials prices.
But starting in 2004, construction activity has sprawled across the city's impressive landscape. Last year, construction permits soared 91% as building activity continues to set records. The plans are even in the works for Latin America's largest hotel and condominium project - the 101-story Ice Tower, now under construction on Panama City's prestigious Avenida de Balboa bordering the Pacific Ocean approach to the Canal.
In 2005, Panama's economy grew a healthy 6.4% with revenues rising on all fronts. This includes the Panama Canal, which registered its third consecutive year of double-digit growth in toll revenues. Tourism and financial services, two other important sources of income, also recorded impressive growth rates.
As the city continues to draw yield-hungry investors and bargain-seeking residents, Panama City is quickly becoming the next "big" thing for international real estate investors. As this road becomes more crowded in the years to come, the window of opportunity will surely close as prices escalate. In fact, prices are rising across the country in 2006 as an influx of foreigners scoop-up bargains.
Compared to other popular Central American countries like Costa Rica and Nicaragua, Panama offers far more value and superior modern infrastructure. Gross domestic product grew 4.3% in 2005. And this year's GDP is expected to be even higher as tourism, financial services, shipping and free-trade zones attract booming foreign direct investment.
In a global environment of mostly inflated asset values and prime real estate located on beachfront property, Panama is the bargain of the decade. Americans, Canadians and Europeans are now pouring into Panama to make investments. For value investors, Panama is the best bang for your real estate buck in this decade.
ERIC N. ROSEMAN, Montreal, Quebec
Investment Director, The Sovereign Society Ltd.
Editor's Note: Want to know more about Panama? Next week's A-Letter will feature a week-long series on Panama including articles by Christoph Zollinger on retiring in Panama, Mark Nestmann on Panamanian bank secrecy and Derek Sambrook on Panamanian trusts. And if you want to check out Panama for yourself, you're welcome to join The Sovereign Society in Panama for the Total Wealth Symposium May 17 - 20.
LINK: http://www.isecureonline.com/reports/191STWS/E191G192/