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Secrets Behind Trading in the Currency Markets
December 22, 2006


The
            Sovereign Society Offshore A-Letter

 


Friday, December 22, 2006
Vol. 8 No. 254
In Today's Letter:
Comment: The Secrets to Trading in the Currency Markets
Wealth: Buyers Beware of Mutual Funds Now
Sovereignty: Capitalism's Achilles' Heel Part I
The Secrets Behind Trading in the Currency Markets

Today's comment is by Jack Crooks, our Currency Director and editor of Crooks on Currencies and The Money Trader.

Dear A-Letter Reader,

At our holiday lunch yesterday, Erika Nolan, my publisher, asked me if there was a particular secret to success in the currency market. My short answer was of course no.

But the more I reflect on the question, the more I realize there are some key ingredients that are essential for success when you play the currency markets. So here's a look at the essentials and how I structure my trades each day in to assure long-term success. 

Perspective, or the ability to rank things in relative importance, is the first must-have for trading in the currency markets.

You can only gain perspective by doing it... or through your life experience. I may have a particular advantage here. I've been married for 25 years and raised four kids and several dogs (which are treated like kids in our family - my kids would argue the dogs are treated better than the kids. I retort, there's a reason - the dogs always listen and never give me any trouble.)

If you have kids, you know what I mean by perspective. One of my favorite bumper stickers reads this way: "I have kids, I can handle anything." Bingo!  When you're trading in a market that can viciously change directions in an instant, you have to be flexible and open to anything. Plus you need to be able to separate the important stuff from the noise.  

The second ingredient to trading success is humility.

You must understand (and accept) the fact that at any moment the market can prove you completely and utterly wrong. This is hard for a lot of people to swallow. Their egos stand in the way. Once again, rearing multiple kids has paid off in spades. With a house full of kids, your personal needs and self-importance sink to the bottom in importance and stay there for years. Any hubris-filled ambitions are put on hold. And once your kids are grown and you can finally act on your previous ambitions, you realize how shallow they really were anyway. 

The third key ingredient is love for the currency markets. You have to enjoy the nature of the work and learning everyday. 

This is critical because in order to maintain your edge in currencies, you have to do a lot of homework. And if you don't like what you're doing, you won't stay disciplined. 

Here's a look at the things I do each day to maintain my edge and increase my chances of long-term success trading currencies: 

My day starts around 3:30 a.m. EST.  I roll out of bed and fire up the coffee pot; then I get to work. Why so darn early? Well, it's because a lot has happened in the trading day for currencies by then. It allows me to get an early look at the price action in London, which often sets the tone and trend for the rest of the day.

The first thing I do is look at prices and intraday charts of all the major currencies to see the overnight action. I get a bearing on bond, oil, and gold prices too. 

I then scan the news headlines on the front page of The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg.com, the Financial Times, and Dow Jones Newswire, looking for surprises and thinking about macro themes and ideas.

I read the Credit Markets section of The Wall Street Journal every morning because interest rates are the ultimate driver of all things financial and the Fed is still the world's defacto central bank.

I then read Caroline Baum's column at Bloomberg.com if I didn't the day before. Ms. Baum is without a doubt the best financial journalists there is when in comes to continuous commentary on interest rates and credit markets. She writes often, and almost always provides insight that goes beyond the consensus.

I scan Morgan Stanley's Global Economic Forum and read articles of interest. This is great stuff with lots of stats backing their views. It is a bit deep at times if you don't have a background in economics. But it's well worth the read. And it's good fodder for thinking of intermediate-term scenarios of capital flows across the globe. 

And just as important... if not more so... I read my email from friends and traders around the world. They often have real ground-level view which you will never find in the papers.

The ideas for Currency Currents flow from these readings and news scanning and appear on my Sovereign Society blog each day.  

Then the attention turns to the key reports due out in the United States. I have an idea of what I'm expecting to see for the major releases. Examples of some of the major economic reports in the U.S. include: Federal Reserve Rate decisions, U.S. payroll report, consumer price index, durable goods report, etc. 

My objective in doing this homework everyday is to help me make consistently profitable trading and investment recommendations. All that you need is a little perspective, humility and love of markets, and time to do your homework. If you have the first three, but are lacking the time for homework, that's why I'm here. Now that the kids are on their own, I have plenty of time for that. 

JACK CROOKS, Currency Director

EDITOR'S NOTE: All of Jack's strategies listed above also help him choose the best performing currency exchange traded funds (ETFs) for his latest currency trading service, Crooks on Currencies. Learn more about this service.


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Wealth

Buyer Beware: The Taxman Is Coming

Over the next nine days, U.S. and Canadian-based mutual funds will make their year-end per share distributions. So if you're considering making an investment now, I'd consider waiting until January 2, 2007.

The majority of mutual funds, including open and closed-end funds, will shortly issue capital gains distributions for 2006. Some funds will also make smaller dividend and interest-income payments. For investors looking to buy a fund now, that means the year-end capital gains and income distributions are still taxable. The last thing you want as a new mutual fund investor is to pay income taxes when you just made an investment.

Unless you use a tax-deferred account, avoid buying these funds this month and instead, make your investment in January when the tax burden will be pushed back until December 2007.

Offshore, the majority of mutual funds don't issue per share distributions of any kind. Of course, if you're a U.S. investor you shouldn't be investing in an offshore fund unless the vehicle is tucked inside a tax-deferred account like an IRA or an offshore variable annuity.    

Simple reminders can make a big difference. Before you invest in a mutual fund, make sure to check when distributions will be made. Many mutual fund companies will also list their distribution estimates on websites, making financial planning that much easier for 2006.

The taxman already has more than his fair share. Don't give him more than he needs. 

ERIC ROSEMAN, Investment Director


Sovereignty

Capitalism's Achilles' Heel Part I

Asian markets were rattled this week when the Thai government decided that heavy inflows of capital from foreign speculators had made the baht too strong.

To slow the flow of foreign capital, the Thai central bank declared on Monday that foreigners effectively would be able to invest only 70% of money they transferred into the country. The other 30% was to be held in reserve by financial institutions. And any attempt to pull the money out within a year would result in a loss of 10% of the total.

To nobody's surprise, the response was an immediate plunge in the Thai stock market, and a ripple effect in other Asian markets. Benchmark indexes in Malaysia and Singapore dropped by about 2 percent. Markets in India fell 2.5 percent and Indonesia posted an almost 3 percent decline, while the Thai market fell 15%. And yes, the government's decision had the desired effect on the baht: it dropped 2.2%.

Taken aback by the immediate flight of foreign investors, the government quickly relented. Finance Minister Pridiyathorn Devakula announced earlier this week that the government is now examining ways to control investors' choices. "Yesterday, after the market closed, we got together with stock market brokers and the private sector to discuss how to prevent flows from the stock market to bond market," he told the Wall Street Journal.

Unfortunately, naïve governments that presume to outwit millions of individual investors and consumers are the rule in history. The Southeast Asian market turmoil brought back memories of the 1997 currency crisis, when Thailand's central bank tried to stop a plunge in the baht, and prompted a profound economic setback across Asia. This time around, Thailand was trying to arrest sharp increases in its currency. Thailand isn't the only nation with that problem. Currently, governments across Asia are struggling against the falling dollar, as its decline raises the price of Asian exports for consumers in the United States and all other dollar-based economies. Meanwhile, politicians in the U.S. also work to expand the markets for their exporters.

Ah, the endless trade war, all fueled by different rates of money creation in countries around the globe. Governments and their central banks continuously manipulate the monetary and trade game, increasing or decreasing the speed of currency creation, adjusting interest rates, pressing for trade advantages by raising tariff barriers against imports, or by subsidizing exports, all the while ranting about the beggar-thy-neighbor policies of other governments. The result is the very volatility that makes currency traders salivate, and economies flounder.

Tune in next Tuesday, and I'll tell you why these endless trade wars are capitalism's Achilles' heel. Until then, have a wonderful holiday weekend.

JOHN PUGLSEY, Chairman


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