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Freedom, Privacy and Prosperity in the Offshore World
Portfolio Diversification Made Easy
May 8, 2007


The
            Sovereign Society Offshore A-Letter

 


Tuesday, May 8, 2007
Vol. 9 No. 110
In Today's Letter:
Comment: Portfolio Diversification Made Easy  
Offshore: A Late-Blooming Billionaire Finally Breaks into Offshore Boom
Privacy: "Exit Tax" Apparently Dead - at Least for Now
Portfolio Diversification Made Easy

Today's comment is by Eric Roseman, our Investment Director and editor of Global Mutual Fund Investor (GMFI) for the last 15 years.

Dear A-Letter Reader,

It's hard to time the markets. In fact, international investors often say one of their biggest mistakes is chasing performance at exactly the wrong time.

But fortunately, there is a way to avoid this mistake. As part of my presentation at the Total Wealth Symposium last week, I explained how to diversify internationally using special mutual funds known as "global equity funds."

This breed of mutual fund allows you to invest worldwide, including the United States. By using these mutual funds, you can spread your assets across the globe using foreign currencies, while you reduce your portfolio exposure to volatility.

Strangely, the majority of international investors prefer to avoid these consistently profitable products. Instead, they chase the so-called hottest countries or sector funds, usually for dismal long-term results.  

Cut Your Losses, Boost Your Returns

Investors typically hope to ride the next big trend in global investing. They hastily trade the losers in their portfolios for very risky mutual funds that focus on countries, regions or sectors of the market.

The most damaging consequence of this ill-timed strategy is buying mutual funds that have already posted massive double or triple-digit gains. This seriously reduces your margin of safety.

In Panama, I discussed how to reduce volatility, increase total returns and substantially cut your portfolio losses during bear markets. You can do all this simply by overweighting your portfolio with global equity funds.

You can reduce your risk by placing 30% of a long-term growth portfolio in global equity funds, especially those with index-beating returns offshore and in the United States.

Please don't misunderstand me. There's nothing wrong with investing a small portion of your portfolio in potentially lucrative single-country and sector funds. But you don't want to overdo it. If you overweight your portfolio in these asset classes, you open yourself up to big risks if that sector or country falls prey to a correction. Or worse, a bear market.

A global equity fund might not guarantee positive returns in a bear market. But it'll certainly cut your portfolio risk by a significant margin, and possibly lead to profits.

What to Love about These Global Funds

Global equity funds invest worldwide. They typically allocate a large portion of their assets in American stocks because the U.S. is the largest and most liquid market in the world.

The majority of money-managers can't beat the market, so these fund managers usually track the MSCI World Index to boost their returns versus their peers. The MSCI World Index currently holds 45% in U.S. stocks, its largest constituent weighting. The second and third largest markets, respectively, include the United Kingdom at 10% and Japan at 9.5%.

In the last global bear market from 2000 to 2002, the MSCI World Index crashed a cumulative 53% over 36 months. That was its worst 3-year percentage decline in history.

But interestingly, some global equity funds actually earned profits over the same period. These included First Eagle Sogen Global Fund and American Funds World Growth and Income Fund , both closed to new investors. Another great fund, currently in the TSI Portfolio , also posted gains in that three-year period as indexes collapsed.

In fact, mutual funds in the global value equity category earned profits from 2000 to 2002 as their benchmarks plunged. But the majority of international markets and sectors all logged huge losses in that three-year period, especially funds focused in the technology and telecommunications sector. 

Shun the U.S. Markets if You Want To

If you're looking for non-U.S. equity exposure from a diversified mutual fund, consider international stock funds. These funds stay away from the American markets.

Some of these funds also earned profits from 2000 to 2002 and benefited from the U.S. dollar's decline as foreign currencies rallied, starting in 2001.

When you invest in a global or international stock fund, you're also benefiting from the long-term appreciation of most foreign currencies against the U.S. dollar.

Since the dollar peaked in early 2001, it has lost more than 40% versus the single European currency. That has boosted the returns for dollar-based investors in foreign stock funds.   

If you buy funds in this steady sector, you also enjoy lower fees. You don't have to trade these funds or jump in and out of the latest fads, so you'll limit your portfolio expenses.

Over time, you'll save fees from portfolio churning. Also, many of these funds are available No-load, or no up-front dealing commissions. 

Don't Chase the Fads, Wait for the Profits

Chasing the latest trend or fad in mutual funds is the wrong way to invest.

If you prefer to add some spice to your portfolio, then limit your sector and country fund exposure to a small portion of your total assets.

Instead stick with diversified global equity funds, particularly those employing a value investment philosophy. This will boost your long-term returns in all markets and cut your portfolio expenses.    

Now in its 15th year, Global Mutual Fund Investor continues to track and rank some of the world's top-performing money managers, including global funds.

Since April, I've also recommended top non-U.S. dollar offshore funds, a great way to diversify your non-dollar portfolio.       

ERIC ROSEMAN, Investment Director


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Offshore

Late-Blooming Billionaire Finally Breaks into Offshore Boom

He's one of the world's wealthiest men. He's also the Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway. His investment strategies are legend.

He's Warren Buffet, now 76-years-old. And he recently admitted something rather odd for a renowned investment guru.

At this year's annual meeting of his 27,000 shareholders, Buffett said that in the next few months he will be stepping up efforts to invest abroad. He admitted "we can be validly criticized for not making more of an effort in the past [to invest in offshore markets]."

I'm not sure why this billionaire has ignored the offshore world and emerging markets for so long, but he has.

Perhaps Buffet should have made another profitable investment and become a member of The Sovereign Society many years ago. He could have subscribed to and read our several excellent offshore investment and currency newsletters and made even more millions for shareholders of Berkshire-Hathaway.

According to news reports almost all of Berkshire's 217,000 employees and its US$100 billion a year operation is housed in the United States. So Buffett's desire to substantially raise the "half dozen or so" non-American investments heralds a new direction for the group. Buffett told the seventh consecutive record crowd at Berkshire's annual general meeting that during the next few months he will be working to pursue opportunities outside America.

Had Warren read our Investment Director, Eric Roseman's comments, he would have known that since June 2001, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has surged 117%, easily beating the modest 5% return generated by the MSCI World Index of major markets.

Even the S&P 500 Index, once unbeatable in the roaring 1990s, is up just 4% over the same period. And without a doubt one of the hottest fixed income sectors since 1992, the JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index has earned over 11.6% per annum with only one losing calendar year in 1998. Simply put, emerging markets are hot, red hot.

At last count, there are more than 8,500 funds registered with the SEC. Only the top 15% - or about 1,275 - have been truly worthwhile for investors. The other 85% have underperformed their benchmarks in the last 20 years.

Yet there are over 50,000 additional funds offshore ... and the best of these have not only outperformed their benchmarks, but they've beaten the top-performing U.S. funds and have generated significantly better returns than the S&P and other major indices in recent years.

It's amazing to me that Warren Buffet has only now gotten the word about lucrative offshore investment markets -- but better late than never!

BOB BAUMAN, Legal Counsel


Privacy&Rights

"Exit Tax" Apparently Dead - at Least for Now

Several weeks ago, I described a proposal in the "Small Business and Work Opportunity Act" to impose an exit tax on U.S. persons who give up U.S. citizenship or long-term residence if they have unrealized capital gains that exceed US$600,000. Click here to see the full story .
 
On April 20, House and Senate committees reached an agreement on the bill. They stripped the exit tax from the bill. The revised package is part of the Iraq supplemental spending bill that is now before President Bush.

While Bush is almost certain to veto this bill, due to the timetable it includes for withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from Iraq, he has indicated his willingness to sign the tax legislation. It's my guess that when he does so, the tax legislation will be submitted separately, again without the exit tax.

I'll keep you posted as to the ultimate fate of this ill-conceived legislation. It's not realistic to expect that the exit tax is dead, because it's been introduced in some form in nearly every congressional session since 1995. But the chances look very good that it's dead for at least another year.

Why might a U.S. citizen want to give up their nationality? Primarily because the United States, alone among major countries, imposes income, capital gains, gift and estate taxes based on citizenship, rather than residence. Giving up U.S. citizenship is the only way to eliminate this onerous tax liability. 

To learn more about this tax-saving strategy, click here.

MARK NESTMANN, Privacy Expert &
President of The Nestmann Group
www.nestmann.com

P.S. Since I originally wrote this privacy comment, President Bush did in fact veto the bill as I predicted he would. So it's official: "yo ho, the exit tax is dead," (at least for now).

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THE SOVEREIGN SOCIETY OFFSHORE A-LETTER
* Erika Nolan, Executive Director * Mike Burnick, Senior Editor
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