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Playing the Bermuda Angle
October 2, 2007


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Tuesday, October 2, 2007 - Vol. 9, No. 234

Playing the Bermuda Angle

Today’s comment is by Bob Bauman, The Sovereign Society’s Legal Counsel and offshore expert.

Dear A-Letter Reader,

In the nearly 10 years The Sovereign Society has been in existence, I personally have encountered numerous instances when financial experts have flat out lied to their clients.

I’ve watched American-based lawyers, bankers, stock brokers, investment advisors and retirement planners literally lie to their U.S. clients, when these clients mentioned they were interested in pursuing offshore activities.

Recently, I wrote about a Merrill Lynch agent who did just that. He falsely advised a client not to convert her IRA into an offshore retirement account, and greatly exaggerated the tax costs that would ensue. In reality, he just didn’t want to lose her business to a foreign firm.

If you ask most domestic American lawyers about an offshore asset protection trust, you’ll be barraged with false horror stories. You’ll hear about anti-money laundering laws and the PATRIOT Act curtailing offshore activity, usually with the added threat that the IRS will audit you if you dare to go offshore.

Ask a U.S. insurance or annuity agent about an offshore life insurance policy or using an offshore annuity as a tax-deferred investment vehicle, and you will likely get a similar response.

And certainly American bankers want to keep funds in their hot hands rather than see your cash transferred abroad. Indeed, this puts bankers in league with the IRS and plaintiff's lawyers who want your money where they can get their hands on it.

Cry Baby Companies

This anti-offshore prejudice also exists in the American corporate world.

You could hear its greedy voice last week during the contrived U.S. Senate hearings on what can reasonably be seen as a non-problem. Some of America's largest insurance companies urged the Senate Finance Committee to change tax laws and rules that allow their competitors to avoid billions of dollars in federal taxes by sending money to their affiliates in Bermuda and other tax havens. (These complaining companies could also receive the same tax breaks if they chose to do so.)

They were debating the long-standing U.S. tax code provisions that allow insurance premiums to be shifted from the United States to offshore affiliates. These premiums can be shifted in the form of payments for re-insurance. Re-insurance is essential to keeping insurance companies on a sound financial basis in times of major catastrophes. By shifting re-insurance payments offshore, it reduces a company’s U.S. taxes and allows the proceeds to be invested tax-free. This in turn increases profits to parent companies.

Why is This a Good Idea for a Business?

Start with the fact that U.S. corporate taxes at 35% are some of the highest in the world. Add to that the double tax – shareholders are forced to pay income taxes on dividends. All of these taxes add to the company’s costs, which means they charge consumers more.

By comparison, if a company can legally transfer its funds to Bermuda by buying needed re-insurance, there is no tax at all on the funds or the profits from their reinvestment and the payments are deductible business expenses.

The United States tax treaty with Bermuda allows insurance companies based on the island to deduct premiums from their American taxes that their subsidiaries in the United States collect from American customers. They can then send back these premiums to the headquarters abroad.

In Bermuda and other tax havens, the money is invested tax-free. Bermuda's zero tax rate has lured many insurance companies to incorporate there after moving away from high-tax countries like the United Kingdom. U.S. insurance companies have done this by incorporating affiliates there since the 1970s.

Since Hurricane Katrina and the 9-11 terror attacks, US$25 billion in insurance claims have been delivered from Bermuda to American policy holders. Perhaps even more impressive, US$100 billion of U.S. capital is invested in Bermuda. The overwhelming majority of that money is a result of the insurance and re-insurance industry.

A Hot Button Issue Right Now

U.S. insurers like Liberty Mutual, Hartford and Chubb claim they cannot easily capitalize on the tax law. So they want Congress to close this so-called “loophole” so they can compete with Bermuda-based rivals like Ace, XL and Arch.

In fact, the Bermuda-based American insurance affiliates are simply using the U.S. code provisions as they are allowed to. They say the tax law is a valuable tool for attracting foreign investment to the United States and should not be changed. Indeed, the US$100 billion in foreign investments are far more important to the American economy than any taxes forgone in the transactions.

A strong insurance industry in Bermuda helps the United States economy by providing coverage that is otherwise scarce for catastrophes like Hurricane Katrina. A change in the tax law would mean higher insurance prices for many Americans. Americans and U.S. businesses paid $499 billion for property and casualty insurance in 2006, nearly 4 cents out of each dollar of the gross national product. Apparently U.S. insurance companies want us to pay even more.

Unholy Alliance

Unfortunately, a coalition of high-tax, leftist Democrats and pro-big business, isolationist Republicans in Congress are seriously considering changing the tax law to block tax breaks for insurance companies who go offshore.

In an age of great economic growth prompted by globalism, this sort of Neanderthal non-economics has no place in a rational world.

But who ever heard of rational thinking in the U.S. Congress? And those cry baby big insurance companies make very big political contributions.

BOB BAUMAN, Legal Counsel

P.S. If you’re looking for the right offshore professional who will answer your questions (and give you the straight answers), click here to visit our Council of Experts page for contact information.




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Wealth & Investments

Bottom-Fishing: A One-Way
Ticket to the Poorhouse

On September 18th, the day the Federal Reserve cut the Federal Funds rate to 4.75%, the distressed home-building stocks surged more than 6%. But last Thursday, just nine days following the Fed’s half-point cut, the smashed-out sector trades below where it was last week as the sellers returns en masse. Year-to-date, the SPDRs S&P Homebuilders Index ETF (see below) has crashed 43%.

Lower short-term interest rates won’t help the homebuilders. But lower long-term rates will. And since the Fed cut rates last week, the entire yield-curve has steepened as long-term rates rise on growing inflation concerns. Higher long-term rates, which are not controlled by the Fed, are a bad omen for housing.

Homebuilders Index ETF Plummets!


XHB

Bottom-fishing, though a value-based contrarian strategy, can sometimes kick an investor in the face. That’s because bottom-fishing means buying securities that most investors are still selling; investors or speculators who purchased the homebuilders last week – after a massive decline heading into September 18th, are now down another 14%.

 

The housing market is still in a bear market, with no signs of a bottom until at least the second half of 2008. Historically, housing bear markets in the United States last up to 36 months. Considering the incredible appreciation recorded by many markets since 2000, it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if this bear market runs into 2009.

But on a brighter note, if we strip the most speculative markets from popular housing benchmarks – Miami, Orlando, Phoenix and Las Vegas – then housing values are not dropping at all. Many regional markets are still strong, including most cities in Texas, the American farm-belt and the Midwest, except Michigan. The American housing market is vast. It’s inaccurate to coin the entire market in a freefall because that’s just not the case.

Bottom-fishing can yield enormous long-term profits – assuming you’re patient and extremely timely on your acquisition. But usually, it’s a one-way ticket to the poorhouse.

Many investors thought they were buying great values in Japan in the early 1990s, following the big bust in Tokyo stocks and real estate. Guess what? They’re still waiting for a recovery from those levels. The same is true for technology stocks, which peaked in March 2000 and of course, speculators in Miami and Las Vegas real estate just 12 months ago.

ERIC ROSEMAN, Investment Director



Currencies

Opening the Floodgates to a Swift Dollar Sell Off

Well, we watched history being made as the US$ index fell to an all-time low on Friday.

US Dollar at lows


So far, the dollar dumping has been brisk but orderly. It begs the question: Is the 7819-level in the US$ index just another number, or will it open the floodgates of dollar selling and send the dollar falling further? (Those gates haven’t been exactly sealed over the last few months we must admit.)

 

No doubt the dollar is oversold. But it’s moving in line with the news – bad news about the U.S. economy. It seems the sweet spot of the trend when even the consensus gets it right for a while.

Usually we see some type of bounce after so many one-way bets are established. It’s normal for a market to shake off riders, or shakeout weak hands. But an all-time low has a way of changing the dynamics of the game.

New lows embolden those that are in the trade, leading them to add more. And it can force capitulation on the part of those who aren’t already in the trade, those who’ve been waiting for the overall market to shakeout. Capitulation, coupled with swelling confidence on the part of those that have been “right,” makes up the selling pressure. This creates the cascading (spiking) downward move in price.

It can become a runaway self-reinforcing trend, leading to a significant overshoot downward in the buck to a level that far exceeds any real fundamental weaknesses in the United States.

If the cornerstone of modern portfolio theory was accurate, it would tell us that rational investors wouldn’t fall for this – it wouldn’t happen. But the fact is market participants are not rational. They may approach seeming rationality during so-called “normal” times. But they become increasingly irrational during critical price moments. They revert to their own mean, which is measured in fear and greed. Fear of loss, greed for gain, and one other motivator – fear of missing out on another big move; they want to participate with the crowd.

So, the setup is ripe for a big move lower in the buck thanks to a key number – 7819. Hmmm…19! Is it bad karma for the dollar? We’re not sure. But at the very least, it probably represents a selling rationale as good as some we’ve heard about lately.

JACK CROOKS, Editor
World Currency Options



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