Some say they’re corrupt…some say they’re courageous… Some say they’re villains…others see them as heroes… But almost all who know them – fear them… Public companies despise them. Governments target them. And Wall Street shudders when they make their moves… These rebel traders make money, when the crowd – gets it wrong. When the majority have all piled into the wrong stock, the wrong industry, the wrong sector, they blow the whistle, and everybody gets burned…everybody that is, except them. It’s at these tragic times: these profit-busting market moments…that these renegade traders triumph. And they do it - by doing the unthinkable…they bet that share prices will collapse. They are Wall Street’s Prophets of Doom!They were profiteers through the Great Panic of 1873…the Crash of 1929…the Inflationary ‘70s…Black Monday…the Great Tech Wreck…9/11…and more recently through the Sub-prime Meltdown… But even though they may spread rumors, and may be responsible for sending a stock price reeling, they do play a vital role in the markets. They keep investors from getting too bullish! They provide a reality check. But while they rarely garner many friends on Wall Street, they still rank among the market’s greatest traders… They’re known for their meticulous research, and they’re known for being right when everyone else is often wrong… In fact, many of the greatest trades ever made were shorts…
But despite all the hype and scandal surrounding infamous short sellers, short selling is a legitimate and necessary investment strategy… You see there are two sides to every trade, every market… But most investors only ever play one side…so they immediately cut their options in half! But the greatest investors always play both sides. Even top value investor Warren Buffett recently shorted the dollar…And top-notch investment funds like the Harvard and Yale University Endowment Funds also trade heavily on the short side of the market, as do most of the world’s other great money managers… After all, what do you do when the bulls die and the markets crash? Going long on stocks at these times can kill you…as they did to many a trader last decade. Going short however can save your portfolio from the ravages of a vicious bear market or the devastation of a market collapse… So if you want to survive and thrive through the volatile years ahead you’d better start learning the secrets of the short sellers, so you can start playing (and profiting from) the other side of the market… The Short Sellers’ Magic Metric
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| The Secret Mechanics Behind the Z-Score’s Genius! | |||||
Altman’s Z-Score involves five key financial ratios. The first four are working capital, retained earnings, operating income and sales, each divided by total assets. The last is market capitalization divided by total debt. The equation looks like this: Z = 0.717(x1) + 0.847(x2) + 3.107(x3) + 0.420(x4) + 0.998(x5)While you don’t have to worry about being able to calculate the complicated sum above, it is important to see that the Z-Score is a far more sophisticated and thus a far more reliable way to gauge the true health of a company than the common metrics like P/E ratios that most people use. And once all these figures are typed in, the system spits out a score.
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Austrian-Schooled Economist Reveals the World’s 1st Z-Score-Based Trading Research Service for the Mainstream Investor
We live in credit-crunched times…and the Z-Score is set to become the new name of the game…
Its original creator Edward Altman is the world’s leading authority on corporate bankruptcies and defaults. And the Day of Defaults is here. That’s why the Z-Score has become so important…because it’s at these times, these profit-busting market moments, when the Z-Score’s short indicators start ringing off the charts…
While millions of mainstream investors across the world will see this as a disaster, for short sellers using the strategy, it will be the most wildly profitable time of their lives. They’ll make more money in a fraction of the time by playing the other side of the market…the short side…
Big corporations and big traders pay up to $75,000 a year to gain access to the Z-Score system. That’s why the system has largely remained just a tool for big businesses and big traders. But not anymore…
You see, The Sovereign Society has paid a hefty fee for a subscription to the Z-Score system, and we hired a top short-seller to use it to track down the market’s next great trades.
And this is your chance to be among the first to try it!
Today, we’re inviting 500 of our most loyal readers to sign up for a trial subscription to this revolutionary new service.
It’s called the Credit Crunch Short Report, and it is run by Andrew Packer, an Austrian school economist, who worked as an analyst for a Private Equity firm, before he came to head up the Credit Crunch Short Report.
The Credit Crunch Short Report is the world’s first (and only) Z-Score-based short-trading research service for the mainstream investor.
By signing up for the Credit Crunch Short Report today, you can gain access to it for less than 2 cents on the dollar.
What’s more, you’ll also get access to Andrew’s stellar trading recommendations, which will be sent to you by e-mail each week in The Credit Crunch Short Report.
In fact, in a moment I’ll tell you what we believe will be the next 5 big shorts, and why they promise to be among today’s greatest plays!
An 80–90% Success Rate!
To track down great trading opportunities on the short side, we look for stocks that contain a Z-Score of 1.8 or less. A low score like that is usually a good sign that the company is in trouble, and may soon default. Based on just that one figure alone the Z-Score has enjoyed an 80-90% success rate over the past 4 decades.
But after months of testing and back-testing the system, Andrew Packer, our very own top short-seller, happened on a few of his own Z-Score revelations.
As he ran his tests, he noticed that three separate technical indicators kept popping up. He’d seen these indicators before – DOZENS of times. But this time, he noticed something different…
Andrew realized the Z-Score was just one component of a more robust formula that had to be used in conjunction with these three indicators in order to predict what companies’ share values would fall.
It wasn’t enough that a company merely had a Z-Score of just 1.8 or below.
Three more indicators needed to go off before a short trade (for big profits!) was triggered…
These indicators were:
- A FALLING Z-SCORE! Yes, it wasn’t just that a company hit the 1.8 Z-Score threshold. We needed that Z-Score to fall for two more consecutive quarters! That tells us that the company in question isn’t just a high bankruptcy risk, its financial position is actually getting worse…
- A $500 MILLION minimum MARKET CAP. We only look at companies that are $500 million market cap and over. If the company is too small, it will make it more difficult for us to short it, and more difficult for us to predict its downfall…
- FALLING STOCK PRICE! The final indicator we look at is a fall in the stock price. In essence, we want to confirm that the stock is now on a downtrend. In technical terms, we look for the stock to break below its 20-day moving average…
When all these indicators have gone off, the results could be staggering. It truly was a Eureka moment for Andrew.
By combining these three technical indicators with the Z-Score – he created what is now fondly known among his followers as the Credit Crunch Short Indicator.
And by waiting faithfully and patiently for each of these 4 indicators to all go off before recommending a trade, he was able to match the success rate of the Z-Score.
But before we would even consider going public about this new discovery – we had to put Andrew’s Credit Crunch Short Indicator to the test.
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A Trading Triumph!
We first tested the Credit Crunch Short Indicator on five companies. And low and behold once each of the 4 indicators had gone off, the system triggered a winning trade – every time.
We couldn’t believe it. We thought it must be too good to be true. So we deliberately tried to prove it false over the next several weeks…with many of our staff working overtime to try and get this indicator to fail.
We tested 10 companies…then 20 companies. And every time the system came up trumps. Now because the subscribers to our services pay for results, we wanted to ensure this indicator was tested enough to work with greater than 90% accuracy.
So we tested 30 companies…then 40 companies…
By the time we tested the 56th company, the Credit Crunch Short Indicator failed only once. It issued 56 “short now!” warnings…and in 55 of those cases, those stock values fell from 18% to 97%…triggering shorts that clocked up staggering gains that ranged anywhere from around 100% to 700%!
Finally…we accepted that we had truly stumbled upon something miraculous in the world of short-selling.
What’s more, we knew we had to start using it right away, so we could triumph (rather than suffer) through the credit-crunched times ahead…even more important we knew we must get news of it out to our readers…
System Triggers 55 out of 56 Winning Plays! Below is just a selection of some of the winning plays that were triggered in back-tests with the Credit Crunch Short Indicator. Look at the string of extraordinary profits you could’ve made. The letter would be too long if I tried to include all the examples. But the list goes on…
*The system went live late last year. And it got off to a slow start in the short-term bull market. But the system thrives in a bear market. And thrives on volatility. And this year it has started to really take off, triggering a string of winning plays in just the last few months. While a few of our open positions were in the red, as of this writing, they were only down slightly. And these are new positions. We trust given time these positions will soar with the rest. Trading puts can be volatile. But patience, and holding true to the process, can pay off big time, especially in rocky markets! In full disclosure here is a complete list of all our open and closed 2010 positions:
*All figures as of June 22nd, 2010 |
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The Rise of the Big Shorts
So profitable and popular is short-selling becoming today that a number of worried debt-ridden governments across the world have even sought to ban it. They know that if everyone started climbing on board the short wagon, their markets and their economies would soon tank…
But it’s at these times when short selling bans start to become front page news that you need to start running toward the short side of the market, and NOT away from it.
While governments throughout history have been known to issue short-selling bans in times of extreme market turbulence, they rarely ever issue it on the entire market…and they usually just put a temporary ban on “naked short selling” – which is when traders short stocks without actually putting up the money to borrow them first. But there are actually many ways to short a stock or a market or a currency.
And many of them are far safer…far less risky… and they offer far greater rewards than merely shorting stocks the traditional way. They don’t always require big trading accounts or special margin accounts…And they don’t suffer from the usual bad press traditional short-selling sometimes attracts…
For example, you can short an investment by buying puts, writing calls, or by purchasing any one of the hundreds of revolutionary new ultra-short ETFs, which have only just recently launched on the market…
You can even short an investment by going long on the short’s nemesis i.e. if something goes down something else usually has to go up…when investors flee one company, sector or market, they usually pile into another…someone else’s loss is someone else’s gain…like when Apple destroyed Palm…
In that instance, all you had to do was sell Palm and buy Apple. Of course if you shorted Palm you could’ve made more money. And if you wrote a put on Palm, you could’ve made as much as what Apple’s stock gained in the last decade…but you would’ve done it in a matter of months…not years…
The short seller today is absolutely spoiled for trading choices. He now has access to a not-so-short universe of over 2,500 trading options!
Thanks to the launch of so many new simpler, cheaper, better trading platforms, shorting may soon become “the next big thing…”
The Ultra-Easy & Super-Safe Way To Short
While the Credit Crunch Short Report will recommend a number of different kinds of short-selling strategies from time to time, we’ll mainly be honing in what we believe to be the greatest short-selling strategy of all.
And the best news is it offers one of the best risk/reward ratios in the business. Couple that with the power of our newly refined version of the Z-Score and you’ve got the recipe for the ideal trading research service…Wall Street’s Holy Grail – if you will…
Let me show you what I mean…
When you “short” a stock the traditional way, if the share value falls $20, then you make $20.
Simple, right?
But there are three problems with shorting stocks the traditional way…
- The best possible return on any given stock-shorting play is 100% (double your money).
- The worst possible return is losing everything.
- If you have less than a $500,000 brokerage account – most brokers won’t assist you.
However, there is another way you can short stocks and make much more…while risking far less.
This strategy became popular in England during the 1690’s and the wealthy have been using it over the past few centuries.
Yet today, I’m surprised how few people use it. You’ve probably heard of it…
The strategy is using put options.
And here are the three major benefits to using them with the Credit Crunch Short Indicator:
- It is common to have high double and triple-digit gains - with some in our tests as high as 616%. When you compare that with traditional short-selling where your maximum profit is capped at 100% on any given trade - it’s clear that put options offer much more profit potential.
- Using put options, you could control twice the amount of shares for less than half the money using traditional short-selling methods AND still receive double the profit!
- You could easily start with less than a $10,000 brokerage account. This allows newer or more conservative investors to get into this market with much less risk to their investment capital.
As you can see, it’s a no-brainer to use put options over traditional short-selling methods. To see the huge difference this makes, let’s take a look at Boeing.
When the Credit Crunch Short Indicator issued a sell on Boeing, you could have sold short 100 shares of Boeing the “traditional way.” You would have risked about $8,400 and made $4,400. That’s a 52% return in six months. Good work.
But if you bought “puts” on Boeing, you could have controlled twice the amount of shares for less than half the money and made nearly twice the profit!
With an investment of just $2,300, your profit would have been $8,480 in the same amount of time… a 389% return!
| Credit-Crunched Company | CCSI Issues Sell Signal | Stock Falls | Put Option Rises |
| Blue Coat Systems (BSCI) | 4/30/2008 | -52% | +179% |
| Avis Budget Group (CAR) | 12/31/2007 | -88% | +373% |
| Cooper Tire & Rubber (CTB) | 3/31/2008 | -79% | +153% |
| Excel Maritime Carriers (EXM) | 6/30/2008 | -93% | +280% |
| General Maritime (GRM) | 4/2/2007 | -78% | +159% |
| Leap Wireless (LEAP) | 6/30/2008 | -64% | +265% |
| Alliant Energy (LNT) | 6/30/2008 | -40% | +155% |
| Louisiana Pacific (LPX) | 6/30/2008 | -86% | +177% |
| Lifetime Fitness (LTM) | 12/31/2007 | -84% | +162% |
| Rockwood Holdings (ROC) | 12/31/2008 | -56% | +197% |
| Savient Pharmaceuticals (SVNT) | 9/30/2008 | -80% | +252% |
| Ameristar Casinos (ASCA) | 12/31/2007 | -78% | +398% |
| Bristow Group Inc. (BRS) | 9/2/2008 | -55% | +480% |
| Seacor Holdings (CKH) | 6/30/2007 | -44% | +271% |
| Global Industries LTD (GLBL) | 12/31/2007 | -90% | +616% |
It doesn’t just apply to Boeing. With put options and the Credit Crunch Short Indicator you can do it on one stock after another—as long as they get the all-important sell signal. The result is you’ll make more while risking less.
Take another look at Teekay, for instance.
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You could have shorted $4,600 worth of Teekay stock and made $1,800. That’s about 40% in ten months. Very nice. But you could have done better.
Instead, you could have paid $2,350 for puts on Teekay. Ten months later they were worth $7,750, for a 230% return. You’d risk about half as much and make more than three times the money!
You would have done even better with Xerox.
After the Credit Crunch Short Indicator triggered that conditions were right to sell, Xerox fell 55%. But just a $2,100 investment in put options would have turned into $18,930—an 801% return!
The Next 5 Big Shorts
It’s not just individual stocks that the Credit Crunch Short Indicator can assess. It can also give Z-Scores for entire sectors of the market – even entire countries and regions. It can tell you which are the strongest and which are the weakest…
Some of the sectors with the highest Z-Score ratings today are healthcare and IT. These are the sectors you should be looking toward to play the long side of the market. Some that boast the lowest Z-Scores may shock you…
In fact, in a special Z-Score investment alert we’ll e-mail you as soon as you sign up, we’ll tell you what we believe are going to be The Next 5 Big Shorts.
In it you’ll learn:
- Why this Popular Financial Sanctuary for Retirees is About to Turn Toxic. It’s been a favorite sector for income investors for years, and in cash-strapped times, conventional wisdom says they’re safe. They pay high dividends, they provide critical services every household needs, and no doubt you probably use their services every day… And your retirement portfolio is most probably stuffed with them. But shockingly enough this sector scored the lowest Z-Score rating today on the market! The Z-Score is screaming sell. In this report we reveal a simple little way that you can short this sector, so you can be positioned to profit off its demise.
- Wall Street’s Next Sub-Prime Fiasco. Another socially destructive and morally bankrupt industry is praying once again on the poor – saddling them with debts they can not repay…leading to another $275 billion in loans that could default over the next decade…Only a few brave traders had the foresight to bet against the sub-prime mortgage industry in 2007. They traded against the crowd, and multiplied their wealth as much as 25 times – even as Wall St lost everything…This could be your chance to do the same. The same guys who called the last big sub-prime short are calling this next one too. But you need to get in now. Mammoth, once-in-a-generation profits may be on the table again. The longer you wait, the faster those profits will vanish…
- The Next 2 Countries that Look Set to Default. When they fall, markets will be rocked. And right now their Sovereign Debt is escalating out of control – both already exceed 100% of their GDP… Historically a country normally defaults at an average Debt-to-GNP ratio of 69.3%. These countries became over-inflated in the bubble years, and now they’ve begun to implode…We’ll tell you the 2 best ways to short these markets, so you can profit as global markets are roiled again.
Foreign stock markets of defaulting nations are a short-seller’s dream…
They’re as volatile as hell…and they have the potential to be the biggest profit generators in the business…
We will be monitoring the Sovereign Debt Crisis closely, seeking out the greatest possible plays we can make…including shorting ADRs of specific credit-crunched foreign stocks, shorting emerging market country ETFs, and shorting the currencies and the bonds of the collapsing countries…
These are the kinds of trades you’re likely to never hear about in the popular press – or from any other investment service for that fact.
And we believe they’ll rank among the era’s greatest trades…but not one in a thousand American investors will be lucky enough to get in on them…but you will…as a subscriber to the Credit Crunch Short Report, you’ll be uniquely positioned to weather the coming financial storms up ahead.
What’s more you’ll be positioned to rake in break-through profits on great trades triggered by one of the world’s most powerful and reliable trading strategies.
Be One of the First 500 to Try
“The Trader’s Holy Grail”
By enrolling in the Credit Crunch Short Report today you can be one of the first 500 to test-drive this dynamic new strategy.
Subscribe today and you will automatically qualify for our 90-day test-drive period.
During this period, you’ll receive every email and report we send out, and enjoy unrestricted access to every morsel of research without losing a dollar of your subscription.
We will charge your credit card when you order today, but we will hold your payment in good faith for 90 days. After 90 days, when you’re well on your way to tapping into the great opportunity that lies ahead, your subscription will continue undisturbed. But if for any reason, you find that this service isn’t for you, just cancel within the first 90 days, and we’ll give you back a full refund, less a nominal 10% restocking fee.
A 12-month subscription to the Credit Crunch Short Report normally costs $1,995. But for a strictly limited period only we will let you sign up for just $995 – that’s 50% off!
And here’s what you’ll get:
- Access to the world’s first Z-Score-based short-trading research service for the mainstream investor. (Big corporations and big traders pay up to a $75,000 a year to access Z-Score systems.)
- Exclusive access to Andrew’s unique proprietary investing Indicator that no one except Credit Crunch Short Report subscribers are privy to… …triggering short recommendations that have repeatedly clocked up staggering double digit gains!
- The Market’s Next Great Trades, including little-known shorting strategies that offer some of the best risk/reward ratios in the business.
- The next credit-deficient companies, sectors and markets set to plummet.
- The Best Ways to Short the Coming Wave of Sovereign Defaults, including the next countries ready to default…and the best ways to short them, including shorting the ADRs of their most vulnerable foreign companies, and shorting specific country and currency ETFs too.
- A minimum of one email each week directly from Andrew, with updates on different positions Andrew’s tracking at the time, and analysis on each individual play that Andrew is looking at in the coming weeks…
- Access to the Sovereign Society’s vast network of overseas contacts…who will prove vital “on the ground” intelligence in the coming months as the Sovereign Debt Crisis begins to unfold…
PLUS 3 FREE Z-Score Trading Alerts
- The Next 5 Big Shorts. You’ll learn exactly where 5 of the biggest financial storms are brewing right now in the world…you’ll learn what countries, sectors and stocks are sporting the lowest Z-Scores right now, and which you should avoid at all costs – or which you should short immediately! You’ll learn who the next 2 countries on the verge of default are…what financial sanctuary for retirees is about to turn toxic…and what the top 2 stocks to short right now are – hint…they’re part of what is proving to be Wall Street’s next sub-prime fiasco in the making.
- The Shorters’ Trading Manual. This is the “Rosetta Stone” of short selling. This manual tells you exactly how we built the indicator, how the Altman Z-Score came to play such an important role, and the functions of the other three criteria. You’ll see each of the four triggers in action and understand why—when combined—they accurately predicted sharply falling share prices in 55 out of 56 trial cases.
- The CCSI Options Primer. The problem with most trading strategies is they leave too much to chance. You can get the trend right but the trade wrong. We designed The Credit Crunch Short Indicator to avoid that by focusing very stringently on what to short, when to short and the best way to short. The CCSI Options Primer will show you how we pick the options we believe are going to give you the greatest risk-adjusted returns. In plain language, puts that return $16,830 with just $2,100 at risk (like the Xerox puts did) or return $27,000 with $2,400 at risk, like the Excel Maritime puts. If you’ve never traded options before, this primer will give you a solid understanding of the fundamentals and allow you to buy puts on CCSI-triggered companies with confidence.
The Z-Score’s Indicator is About to Start
Ringing off the Charts
Banks won’t lend their customers money…
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Citizens won’t lend their governments money…
We live in credit-crunched times.
That’s why there’s never been a better time for a service like the Credit Crunch Short Report…
Going forward if there’s one thing you must know about any investment you make, you must know its credit health. If a company (or a sector or even a market’s) credit has dried up (AKA it's experiencing a credit crunch) you won’t want to invest.
Or if you do own it or trade in it, you’ll want to sell it immediately. Or even better, sell it short, and pocket gains as high as 7-fold in 2 days…12-fold in 3 months…even as much as 25-fold in a year…
And there’s really no other system in the world that can issue you a credit rating on a company more efficiently and more accurately than the Z-Score based Credit Crunch Short Indicator.
The Z-Score is set to become the new name of the game…for it’s at these times, these profit-busting market moments, that will send the Z-Score’s indicators ringing off the charts…
While millions of mainstream investors across the world will see this as a disaster, for short sellers using the system, it will be the most wildly profitable time of their lives. They’ll make more money in a fraction of the time by playing the other side of the market…the short side…
We hope you’ll be one of them!
Simply click here now to lock-in your 50% savings… and to get your copy of the profit-exploding report The Next 5 Big Shorts… or if you prefer, please call us at 1-866-584-4096.
Erika Nolan
Executive Director, The Sovereign Society
July 2010
PS The Credit Crunch Short Indicator looks for home runs. And we only make a recommendation when everything is in place. We stay true to our fundamentals and to our beliefs, so every single one of the Credit Crunch’s 4 Indicators must all go off before we trigger a recommendation. By holding fast to that we will minimize our risks and maximize our rewards. It’s how the system managed to trigger 55 out of 56 winning plays in its test phase, with gains ranging from 100% – 700%! And it’s how all the great investors trade. They never act on emotions. They never get caught up in the headlines. They always stay true to the process. And that’s exactly how the service is going to make you much richer in the months ahead.